To win next year, double down on what worked in the past two years
Bill Gates once said people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. Research proves it: 90% fail ambitious goals. Do this instead.
In the early days of the company, Airbnb's founders struggled to secure bookings and nearly ran out of money. They realized that the main problem was the poor quality of photos on their listings, which discouraged potential guests.
Around 2009, they noticed that listings in New York with professional, high-quality images received far more attention than those with blurry, low-light photos.
Instead of developing new features, raising more capital, or expanding into new markets, they chose to focus entirely on improving the photos.
Chesky and Gebbia personally traveled to New York City, visited their early users’ apartments, and took high-quality photographs of the listings. They worked as photographers, customer service staff, and quality inspectors to improve the pictures.
The intensive work they did that year led to increased bookings and profitability.
Bill Gates once shared a tip that’s worth keeping in mind for all of us: “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.”
This is a pattern that researchers have spent years quantifying, and the numbers are precise.
A 2021 study tracked 271 participants as they pursued ambitious goals. Only 10% succeeded. The other 90% not only failed but also experienced emotional distress.
There’s a particular type of delusion that infects goal-setters, especially entrepreneurs. Research shows that 81% of entrepreneurs believe their chances of success are at least 70%. What about the other 30%? They believe their chances reach 100%. However, only about 25% of businesses survive the first five years.
So just what is going on?
I’ll tell you.
Compared to employees, entrepreneurs and managers tend to overestimate their abilities, and they’re equally bad at predicting realistic timeframes for their goals.
Yes, your junior colleague might have a better instinct for timing than you. But that’s not the point.
Research has consistently shown that our brains are poor at long-term thinking. We can imagine what we’ll accomplish next week or next month with reasonable accuracy. But to predict what we can achieve in one year? As Gates said, we systematically overestimate.
“We tend to be overly optimistic about our own abilities,” says Ebuka Akara. “We think we’re smarter, stronger, and more motivated than we actually are. This leads us to set unrealistic goals for ourselves, which we fail to achieve.”
As I said in an earlier article, failing at an ambitious goal doesn’t just mean you didn’t hit your target. It also means you’re statistically likely to aim lower next time, creating a downward spiral of diminishing ambition.
So why not set a steady 2X goal that’s aligned with a realistic timeline?
After all, it’s not the slow and steady who win the race, but those who take steady steps and are consistent enough to see it through.
But first, what’s wrong with ambitious 10x annual goals?
Set a 10X goal at your own risk
Nicolas Cole recently stated in a goal-setting mastery session that when you set a 10X goal in a year, you’re not making a single leap forward. You’re making five different deviations of difference, each requiring fundamentally different skills, systems, and capabilities.
Of course, it makes sense for motivational speakers to hype you. You don’t believe in yourself, that’s why you tuned in to hear someone tell you what’s possible.
But if you take the bait and set 10x goals for one year, you’re setting yourself up for exponential risks.
Let’s say this year you couldn’t take a gym membership, and it makes you feel bad. You tell yourself you have to do so next year. You’ve seen your friends doing it, training often and staying in shape as they pose on their WhatsApp status and Instagram reels, and you think, why not you?
So, you set a goal to go to the gym every day for 30 minutes in the morning and 30 minutes in the evening. You’ll adjust your calendar to make it happen. You write it down and listen to beast-mode music to keep yourself motivated.
Well…
Someone else in a similar position who decides to use the gym only once or twice per week would need different habits to make it work. They could choose to exercise at the gym only on weekends. That person needs discipline.
But if you are going from 0 to 10 times per week, you need discipline, recovery protocols, nutrition optimization, and injury-prevention strategies.
Can you get it all together in one year?
Your situation fundamentally changes with each double goal, not to mention with each 10x goal. If you set a 10X goal from your current position, you’re asking yourself to navigate five separate transformations simultaneously, without knowing what changes you’ll need to make at each level.
“Growth is almost always a very linear process if you do this, here's the next step. If you do that step, here's the next thing that happens. If you do that thing, here's the next thing that happens,” says Cole.
You can’t skip the middle by thinking bigger.
Temper your ambitions with a double output mindset.
The power of doubling
What’s the alternative to 10X thinking?
Think in doubles. It sounds less ambitious, but it actually works.
Doubling five times results in 32X growth, but setting a 32X goal initially is overwhelming. Each double you achieve teaches you what’s needed for the next level and boosts your skills, systems, and confidence.
One researcher described it as compound interest for personal development: “The progress made within a single double may seem relatively modest. But the collective impact of consistent doubles over time is transformative.”
Matt Mochary has spent over 10,000 hours coaching CEOs at companies such as OpenAI, Coinbase, and Reddit. His Mochary Method recommends breaking down ambitious visions into actionable weekly commitments.
In a nutshell, the smaller the goal, the shorter the timeline. The larger the goal, the longer the timeline must be.
So align your timeline with the goal size. Small doubles get short timelines, typically weeks to months. Medium doubles get medium timelines: months to a quarter. Large doubles get long timelines: quarters to years.
Consider the attempts you need to make
Have you had 10 clients in the last 2 years?
How many attempts are needed to achieve your goals?
How much effort would success require of you?
If you completed ten projects this year, how many proposals did you or your team submit to get those projects? How many times did you pitch your business ideas to people, and how many of them said yes?
What about the effort it will cost you to achieve your goals? Multiply your estimate by 3. Whatever you think it’ll take, just triple it.
Why?
Because you’ve never done it before, that’s literally why you’re setting it as your goal. You’ve likely got the experience and skills, but you’ve never accomplished this exact thing you’re about to attempt.
Set a goal to double your results from two years ago by examining your input, output, and outcomes. If you completed five projects, aim to double that. To achieve this, consider increasing resources or hiring additional staff to ensure you deliver the promised value flawlessly.
The beauty of this framework is that it accounts for what researchers call the planning fallacy, our tendency to underestimate how long tasks will take and how many attempts it will take to succeed.
Want to ensure your goals stick? Read our companion piece on why behaviour change is the only goal worth setting.